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Rocket-powered dumpster fires

"Screenshot of Sam Altman's tweet"

Sam Altman (CEO of OpenAI) recently tweeted:

if you strap a rocket to a dumpster, the dumpster can still get to orbit, and the trash fire will go out as it leaves the atmosphere.

many important insights contained in that observation.

but also it's better to launch nice satellites instead. (source)

I quite like this metaphor for software startups, and I think he's right that there are several insights within it.

Let's quickly unpack the metaphor:

  • Dumpster fire: the messy product.
  • Rockets: factors driving success, regardless of the mess.
  • Into orbit: reaching success, whatever that looks like (acquisition, IPO, profitable sustainable business etc.).

I have some grudging admiration for the honesty: most startups will go through a dumpster fire phase (perhaps repeatedly). Growing pains are part of growing. But most of us can't get away with saying it out loud though.

At a superficial level, this is another way of saying 'move fast and break things' (as pointed out by one of the replies). You don't need the perfect high-quality product every step of the way.

But it's a richer metaphor than that, getting at the intersection of product quality and market forces: if your rockets are excellent they will carry your dumpster fire into orbit. If your rockets are mediocre, you may need to build a better ship (product) so that it can achieve liftoff.

For example, say I invented a piece of software that completely cured anxiety. 100% success rate, cheap, safe - and patentable. Nobody is going to care if the UI is rubbish and it crashes occasionally. On the other hand, say I'm the billionth dev to try and monetize my todo list app. Why would anyone put up with poor quality or missing basic features when they have hundreds of other options?

Of course it's never simple: any metaphor will always elide the complexity of hundreds of competing forces on any given product. And there's a key thing missing from the metaphor: the people. Every rocket-powered dumpster fire has a crew, who both impact trajectory, and are impacted by the state of the dumpster.

But it's still a fun place to start an analysis:

  • How badly on fire is my product?
  • What are my rockets? How powerful are they?
  • Can I either make my dumpster product more aerodynamic (and less combustible), or improve my rockets, or both?

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